For Xavier, the upcoming games are critical. Their path to the NCAA tournament, once seemingly assured at the season’s outset, now requires a near-perfect run. While mathematical possibilities for a tournament berth exist even with losses, the realistic scenario hinges on igniting a winning streak, starting now. Echoing past triumphs, Xavier needs to channel a ‘Patrick Ewing style’ surge, aiming to dominate at MSG and secure an automatic bid. Despite a challenging season, hope remains for the Musketeers, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
Conversely, St. John’s finds itself in a much more favorable position. Boasting a strong 12-3 record and avoiding damaging losses, they’ve constructed an early season resume that positions them for something significant. Their three defeats, all on the road against Q1 opponents, were decided by a mere four points in total. St. John’s has demonstrated dominance in victories and resilience in close contests, never facing a blowout loss themselves.
Xavier’s aspirations hinge on immediate success. A hopeful scenario involves securing home victories against St. John’s and Nova, bookended by a successful road game at DePaul. This path could potentially elevate their WAB (Wins Above Bubble) to around -0.3 or -0.4, setting the stage for a crucial stretch against Marquette (away), St. John’s (away again), UConn (home), and Creighton (away). Navigating this gauntlet with a split record could reignite the tournament conversation for Xavier.
However, the urgency is palpable. The turnaround must begin immediately. Tonight’s game isn’t just another contest; it’s a potential season-defining moment. Failure to secure a win tonight significantly diminishes Xavier’s tournament hopes, making the climb to contention increasingly improbable.
Team Fingerprint: St. John’s Red Storm
St. John’s boasts a defense that ranks among the nation’s elite, consistently placing in the top ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD). Their defensive prowess is built on creating turnovers, blocking shots, and generating live-ball steals. Opponents struggle to score inside the arc against the Red Storm, shooting just 45% from two-point range, a testament to their interior defense. While slightly more vulnerable from beyond the arc, this isn’t a critical weakness. They are average in defensive rebounding but excel at limiting opponents’ free throw attempts. Impressively, only Baylor and Delaware have managed to score even 1 point per possession against St. John’s.
Offensively, St. John’s ranks 49th nationally in adjusted efficiency, largely fueled by their defensive intensity. They employ a fast-paced style, capitalizing on turnovers to score quickly in transition. While three-point shooting isn’t a strength, they wisely limit their attempts from deep, with only 30% of their shots coming from beyond the arc. St. John’s excels at ball security and attacks the offensive glass aggressively. In essence, they embody a classic run-and-gun team, transitioning defense into offense.
Player Spotlight: Key Matchups
To understand the dynamics of the St. John’s vs Xavier game, examining the projected starting lineups and key player matchups is crucial.
Starting Lineups & Key Player Analysis
| Matchup Category | St. John’s Red Storm | Position | Xavier Musketeers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Guard | Deivon Smith (Senior) | Point Guard | Dayvion McKnight (Senior) |
| Player Profile | 6’0″, 175 lbs; 11 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG; 45.2/40/69.6 FG%/3P%/FT% | Measurements & Stats | 6’0″, 188 lbs; 10.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.7 APG; 45.3/38.7/84.9 FG%/3P%/FT% |
| Strengths & Weaknesses | Leads Johnnies in DReb%; Excellent passer and defender; Capable three-point shooter if open; Good finisher but settles for inefficient mid-range shots. Fourth school in college career. | Player Analysis | McKnight offers similar size and experience at the point. His higher free throw percentage could be crucial in a close game. Smith’s rebounding for a guard is noteworthy, suggesting a high-energy player. |
| Shooting Guard | Kadary Richmond (Senior) | Shooting Guard | Ryan Conwell (Junior) |
| Player Profile | 6’6″, 205 lbs; 10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.4 APG; 46.4/17.6/44.2 FG%/3P%/FT% | Measurements & Stats | 6’4″, 215 lbs; 16.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.1 APG; 45.7/42.9/75.5 FG%/3P%/FT% |
| Strengths & Weaknesses | Strong defender and playmaker; Shooting efficiency has declined, particularly free throw percentage (44%). Hasn’t elevated professional prospects as hoped. | Player Analysis | Conwell is the more prolific scorer and a significantly better three-point shooter. Richmond’s defensive prowess will be tested against Conwell’s offensive capabilities. Richmond needs to improve his shooting to maximize his impact. |
| Small Forward | Aaron Scott (Senior) | Small Forward | Marcus Foster (Senior) |
| Player Profile | 6’7″, 210 lbs; 7.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1 APG; 39/26.9/87.5 FG%/3P%/FT% | Measurements & Stats | 6’5″, 215 lbs; 8.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG; 43.5/43.1/72 FG%/3P%/FT% |
| Strengths & Weaknesses | Solid offensive rebounder; Avoids turnovers; Primarily a three-point shooter (two-thirds of shots from deep); Shooting hasn’t fully translated to St. John’s yet. Rebounding has declined over college career. | Player Analysis | Foster is a more consistent three-point threat (43.1% vs 26.9%). Scott’s offensive rebounding could be a factor, but Foster’s overall offensive game seems more developed currently. |
| Power Forward | RJ Luis, Jr. (Junior) | Power Forward | Dailyn Swain (Sophomore) |
| Player Profile | 6’7″, 215 lbs; 16.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.6 APG; 46.3/23.4/73.9 FG%/3P%/FT% | Measurements & Stats | 6’8″, 220 lbs; 9.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 APG; 54.2/33.3/81.5 FG%/3P%/FT% |
| Strengths & Weaknesses | Excellent finisher around the rim (63% on close twos); Draws fouls effectively (5.5 per 40 mins, 5th in Big East); Weak mid-range and three-point shooter; Solid rebounder and defender. | Player Analysis | Swain is more efficient overall (higher FG% and FT%) and a better three-point shooter than Luis Jr. Luis Jr.’s ability to draw fouls could put Swain in foul trouble, impacting Xavier’s frontcourt depth. |
| Center | Zuby Ejiofor (Junior) | Center | Jerome Hunter (Senior) |
| Player Profile | 6’9″, 240 lbs; 14.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.1 APG; 58.9/25/68.1 FG%/3P%/FT% | Measurements & Stats | 6’8″, 225 lbs; 7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.8 APG; 50/55.6/75 FG%/3P%/FT% |
| Strengths & Weaknesses | Relentless offensive rebounder; Strong finisher in the paint; Shot blocker; Foul drawer; Takes (questionable) threes (20 this year); Size is a key asset for St. John’s. | Player Analysis | Hunter is undersized at center against Ejiofor. Ejiofor’s rebounding and paint presence pose a significant challenge for Xavier. Hunter’s higher three-point percentage (though on limited attempts in the provided data) is an interesting element. |
Bench Depth
St. John’s bench minutes are limited, contributing only about 30% of total minutes. However, they’ve utilized nine different starters throughout the season, suggesting some flexibility. The injury to Brady Dunlap (5.7 PPG), out for a couple more weeks, further impacts their depth.
Key reserve Simeon Wilcher, brother of Xavier legend CJ Wilcher, is a sophomore guard averaging 9.3 PPG with strong shooting splits (45.8/37.5/94.1). He provides scoring punch at all levels and is an excellent free-throw shooter.
Other reserves include 7’1″ center Vince Iwuchukwu, a defensive rebounder and shot blocker who can be foul-prone, and freshman Ruben Prey, a 6’10” big contributing primarily on offensive rebounds. Jaiden Glover is a backup guard known for his three-point shooting (38%).
Three Critical Questions for Xavier
For Xavier to emerge victorious in this crucial St. John’s vs Xavier matchup, they must answer these key questions:
1. Can Zach Freemantle Operate at Full Capacity?
Against St. John’s aggressive perimeter defense, Xavier needs a reliable interior presence. Freemantle, returning from injury, showed promise against Georgetown with 16 points and 7 rebounds off the bench. However, his efficiency inside the arc (3-9) and turnovers (3) need improvement. Xavier desperately needs Freemantle at his best to provide scoring and relief in the paint against St. John’s defense. His ability to draw fouls and command double teams could open up opportunities for Xavier’s perimeter shooters.
2. Can Xavier Force St. John’s to Earn Difficult Shots?
St. John’s offense has struggled recently, particularly in three-point shooting (15% in Big East games). They rank low in the Big East in three-point, two-point, and free-throw percentages. Their offense thrives on transition points from turnovers and second-chance opportunities. Xavier, while capable of slowing down opponents, struggles with defensive rebounding. To contain St. John’s, Xavier must limit turnovers to disrupt transition opportunities and significantly improve their defensive rebounding to prevent second-chance points. Forcing St. John’s into contested half-court shots is crucial.
3. What Offensive Strategy Will Xavier Employ?
Xavier has been effective from three-point range in Big East play (41%). The perimeter has been identified as the weaker point of St. John’s defense. However, Xavier started cold from deep against Georgetown, falling into an early hole they couldn’t overcome. Xavier’s offensive challenge is finding consistent scoring options against a good defense. Coach Sean Miller’s game plan and play-calling will be critical. They need to establish an inside-out game, utilizing Freemantle if he’s effective, to create open looks from three and avoid relying solely on perimeter shots, especially if they start cold again. Identifying reliable scoring options beyond Conwell will be paramount.
One Key to Victory for Xavier
Play a Complete 40-Minute Game.
Xavier has shown a tendency to falter late in close games. Avoiding mental lapses and maintaining focus throughout the entire contest is paramount. Assuming this game remains close, as anticipated, Xavier’s ability to execute in the final minutes will be decisive. They must translate the pre-game mantra of “Win the war, win the game” into tangible on-court execution. This game likely comes down to clutch plays and mental fortitude in the closing moments. If Xavier can’t close out a tight game against St. John’s, their NCAA tournament aspirations will become functionally unattainable.
